Ireland is falling short of its 2030 climate targets, according to the latest figures from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).
Even with all planned policies in place, the country is still projected to fall short of its key goals.
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What’s Behind the Report?
The EPA published its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions projections in Ireland for the period 2024-2055. The projections in the report are based on two scenarios:
- With Existing Measures (WEM): Includes current policies already in place and government commitments.
- With Additional Measures (WAM): Adds further policies that are planned but not yet fully implemented.
Even under the more optimistic WAM scenario, emissions reductions fall far short of what is needed to meet our 2030 climate targets.
Ireland’s 2030 Climate Targets vs Reality
In 2021, Ireland set a target to cut GHG emissions by 51% by 2030, compared to 2018 levels. However, new EPA projections indicate that the country is on track to achieve only a 23% reduction, even if all current climate plans are fully implemented.
This represents a significant drop from last year’s projected 29% reduction and is far below the national goal. The projections also show that Ireland is unlikely to meet its EU target under the Effort Sharing Regulation, which requires a 42% cut in emissions by 2030 (compared to 2005).
Sector-by-Sector Breakdown
Agriculture is Ireland’s largest source of emissions. To combat this, key planned measures include:
➜ Reducing nitrogen fertiliser use
➜ Switching to lower-emission fertilisers
➜ Using feed additives for cattle
Depending on how effectively new measures are implemented, emissions in this sector could either decrease by up to 16% or actually increase slightly by 2030.
The major plans for tackling transport emissions include:
➜ 640,000 electric vehicles (EVs) on the road by 2030
➜ Increased use of biofuels
➜ Greater support for walking, cycling, and public transport
Transport emissions are expected to decrease by up to 21% if these major plans go ahead. Freight transport remains a growing concern and is expected to be the largest source of road emissions by 2030.
Home heating is another significant contributor to GHG emissions.
The installation of over 570,000 domestic heat pumps and better energy efficiency are key in plans to reduce emissions.
Even with these changes, emissions are only expected to fall by up to 22%.
The industry sector is projected to cut emissions by:
➜ More use of carbon-neutral heating technologies
➜ A shift to cleaner energy sources like biomethane
This would result in just a 12% reduction in emissions by 2030.
This is one area showing strong progress. Emissions from electricity generation dropped by over 21% between 2022 and 2023 and are projected to fall by as much as 68% by 2030. This is driven by:
➜ Less fossil fuel use
➜ A rise in renewable energy, particularly wind & solar
➜ Increased electricity imports from low-carbon sources
Unfortunately, emissions from land use are projected to rise sharply, by up to 95%.
As forests planted decades ago are harvested, they switch from storing carbon to releasing it.
Policies such as afforestation and peatland restoration could help but are not expected to fully offset the increase.
A Call for Action
The science is clear: Ireland must move beyond setting goals and start delivering real change. The EPA’s latest report shows that while some progress is being made, it is not nearly enough. With just five years left to 2030, the window to act is narrowing.
EPA Director General Laura Burke stated, “Although emissions trends are going in the right direction, the gaps to our European and National emission reduction targets are now projected to be larger than last year.” She emphasised the need to shift from planning to actual delivery.
How Southern Scientific Can Help
As one of Ireland’s leading environmental consultancies, Southern Scientific is dedicated to supporting Ireland on the path toward its 2030 climate targets. We offer a full range of environmental monitoring, consultancy, and planning services to public & private sector organisations. With our help, sectors nationwide can reduce their GHG emissions.
Whether you’re managing emissions in agriculture, energy, industry, or transport, we provide the tools and expertise to help turn climate plans into action.
