COP31 opened on 9 November in Antalya, Turkey, with close to 200 countries under pressure to turn climate promises into action. Ireland is leading the EU’s negotiating effort at the talks. Yet the EPA projects Ireland will cut emissions by up to 25% by 2030, half its legal target. At home, heavier rainfall is putting new pressure on rivers, beaches and drinking water. For Irish land and water, climate change is a present risk. Reliable data is how you see it coming.
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What Is COP31?
COP31 is the 31st Conference of the Parties to the UN climate convention agreed in 1992. It runs from 9 to 20 November 2026 at the Antalya Expo Centre. Turkey hosts the summit, while Australia’s Climate Change and Energy Minister Chris Bowen leads the formal negotiations.
The summit is not about whether climate change is real. It is about what countries will do, how fast, and who will pay. COP decisions need consensus, so one disputed paragraph can stall a deal for days.
Ireland’s Role: Leading EU Negotiations at COP31
Ireland holds the rotating presidency of the Council of the European Union from July to December 2026. That means Ireland coordinates the EU’s negotiating effort at COP31, alongside the European Commission.
Minister for Climate, Energy and the Environment Darragh O’Brien says delivering existing commitments must come first. That includes the finance promised to vulnerable countries. He wants Ireland to help rebuild trust after tense divisions at COP30 in Brazil last year.
Irish civil society groups are pressing on the detail. ActionAid Ireland Chief Executive Karol Balfe, who chairs Stop Climate Chaos, is calling for grant-based public finance. She argues loans add to the debts of poorer countries that did little to cause the problem.
The Key Issues on the Table
Fossil fuels: At COP28 in Dubai in 2023, countries agreed to transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems. They remain divided on the pace.
Electrification: The summit presidency is promoting a voluntary pledge to raise electricity’s share of global final energy use to 35% by 2035.
Climate finance: At COP29 in Baku, countries set a goal of at least $300 billion a year for developing countries by 2035. The wider aim is to scale this to $1.3 trillion a year from public and private sources. Disputes remain over who pays and whether funds arrive as grants or loans.
Adaptation and loss and damage: Vulnerable countries want support to cope with floods, droughts and rising seas, and for losses that adaptation cannot prevent.
The warming gap: The UN Environment Programme warns current policies put the world on course for around 2.8°C of warming this century. The Paris Agreement aims to limit warming to 1.5°C.
What the Latest Climate Science Shows
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) released new climate data as COP31 opened. Key findings include:
- Global average surface temperature from January to September 2026 was around 1.47°C above the pre-industrial average
- Each of the past 12 years ranks among the 12 hottest on record
- This year’s El Niño is expected to be the strongest since at least 1950
- Global sea level is the highest on record, and glaciers continue a long-term retreat
UN Secretary-General António Guterres warned that climate extremes are becoming the norm. WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said heatwaves, tropical cyclones and rainstorms are intensifying faster than historical records prepared us for.
WMO also urged COP31 to fund the observations and data that early warning systems rely on. The number of countries with multi-hazard early warning systems rose from 55 in 2015 to 136 last year.
For a closer look at what this El Niño means for Ireland, read our article on how El Niño will impact Irish water quality and agriculture.
Ireland Remains Off Track for 2030 Climate Targets
The EPA’s latest greenhouse gas projections, published in May 2026, show the gap Ireland brings to the table.
- Planned policies could cut emissions by up to 25% by 2030, compared with 2018 levels. The legal target under the Climate Act is 51%.
- Under the EU Effort Sharing Regulation, Ireland must cut emissions by 42% on 2005 levels. The EPA projects a maximum reduction of 23%.
- The second carbon budget is projected to be exceeded by 53 to 82 Mt CO2eq.
- Transport, industry and commercial and public buildings are furthest from their 2030 sectoral ceilings.
- Agriculture emissions are projected to fall by between 4% and 19%.
EPA Director General Dr Eimear Cotter said the current rate of delivery would achieve “only half of the reductions needed.”
How Climate Change Is Affecting Irish Water Now
Heavier rainfall is the climate signal Irish water quality feels first. The EPA projects an increase of around 20% in heavy precipitation events in winter and autumn.
Recent EPA data shows the pressure is building:
- Bathing waters: Intense rainfall occurred more often across the 2025 bathing season. The number of bathing water warnings issued ahead of heavy rain came close to doubling.
- Pollution sources: Urban wastewater accounted for 58% of likely causes of reported bathing water incidents in 2025. Agricultural runoff accounted for 22%.
- Rivers: Nitrogen levels in major rivers rose by 10% in 2025. The EPA noted 2025 was wetter than 2024, and high rainfall can increase nitrogen losses through leaching.
Heavy rain triggers wastewater overflows and carries runoff from farmland and urban areas into rivers and onto beaches. For private wells and group water schemes, saturated ground lets contaminants reach groundwater with greater ease. Read more in our coverage of rising river nitrogen levels.
Why Local Environmental Monitoring Matters
COP31 deals in global targets. The effects land on specific rivers, farms, wells and sites. The principle behind WMO’s call holds at every scale. Without reliable data, risks go unseen until they cause damage.
For Irish businesses, farms and local authorities, environmental monitoring means:
- Setting baseline data for water, soil and air before conditions change
- Tracking trends in discharges, nutrient levels and contaminants over time
- Meeting licence and permit obligations, such as IE, IPC and wastewater discharge licences, with accredited results
- Spotting risk after heavy rainfall, before it turns into a pollution incident
Monitor Your Climate Risk With Southern Scientific
Global agreements set the direction. Local data shows whether your site, supply or farm is ready for a wetter, less predictable climate. Testing now gives you a clear record to act on. That is what moving from reactive crisis management to proactive protection looks like in practice.
Southern Scientific’s INAB-accredited laboratory and environmental consultancy team design and run monitoring programmes for water, air, noise, soil and waste. We support compliance testing, licence reporting and one-off investigations across Ireland. For rivers, groundwater and discharges, our water monitoring testing gives you accurate, accredited results.
